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Wheat Prices Expected to Decline as Harvest Gets Underway by Matthew Weaver Capital Press, July 14, 2026

"I don't think guys are making money...
Wheat prices are up a little bit, but costs are up more."
-- Byron Behne, senior market analyst at Northwest Grain Growers, Walla Walla

The Pacific Northwest wheat market may have topped out at $6.55 per bushel as farmers begin the harvest, wheat market analysts say.

"I would expect prices to decline as more people start to sell grain," said Byron Behne, senior market analyst at Northwest Grain Growers in Walla Walla, Wash.

Export demand "isn't awesome" for white wheat, Behne added. With an above-average crop likely, "it seems like there's going to be a lot of bushels out there," he said.

Worldwide, there's not likely to be any big shortage, said Dan Steiner, market analyst in Boardman, Ore.

Last week, 11.5 million bushels of U.S. wheat sold on the export market. The week before, 9.2 million bushels sold.

"Demand is mediocre," Steiner echoed. "If we were routinely selling 18 million to 20 million bushels, that would be very encouraging for the cash market. But it's very steady, very stable and a little bit below expectations.

"Prices probably will be higher than they were last year, but we're not talking about $7 soft white wheat," he said.

General break-even price is about $7.71 per bushel, according to the Washington Association of Wheat Growers.

Black Sea conflict

Prices wouldn't be as high as they are without Ukraine attacking Russian ships, and Russia closing off the Kerch Strait, the outlet from the Sea of Azov into the Black Sea, Behne said.

"If something crazy happens there, like Ukraine starts hitting Russian grain facilities, that could throw everything on its head, but I don't know what the likelihood of that happening is," he said. "If anything stops Black Sea grain from being freely available, then we'll be in a better position."

Short-lived rallies

"It's almost funny to say 'Wheat is going to be volatile,' because wheat is always volatile," said Darin Newsom, Omaha, Neb., market analyst.

He cites production problems in U.S. red wheat markets across the Plains and headlines about Europe, driving fund buying by investors on the non-commercial side of the market.

There hasn't been a big push for U.S. wheat, but it could happen, he said.

Newsom foresees two-week to four-week periods with strong commercial buying.

"We're going to have to get used to 10-cent rallies and 10-cent sell-offs, and we're going to have to use that to our advantage," Newsom said. "We're going to have opportunities, but they're going to be short-lived."

Behne thinks price rallies are more likely after harvest without a Black Sea problem or a rise in crude oil prices.

"There are a couple external factors here, but if neither of those situations drives grain up, I would expect wheat prices to drop as we go through harvest," he said. "I don't think guys are making money . . . Wheat prices are up a little bit, but costs are up more. Probably a similar situation to what guys have been seeing these last two years, honestly."

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