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Summer Run Fish Forecasts Flounder by Eric Barker Lewiston Tribune, July 6, 2025

Columbia River forecast for sockeye and steelhead
follows an even-odd year up and down pattern

Summer fisheries for steelhead and sockeye are underway but it's not expected to be a great year for either.

State, tribal and federal fisheries managers from the Snake and Columbia rivers recently downgraded their forecast for sockeye salmon. Before the season began, they expected this year's run to number 350,000, which is less than half of the 2024 return of more than 760,000 fish that set a modern-day record. Now they have cut that forecast nearly in half and are calling for a return of about 183,000.

Washington has adjusted its season and bag limits accordingly. The Columbia River will be closed to all sockeye fishing today through Tuesday and then transition to a Wednesday-through-Saturday structure starting Wednesday with a bag limit of two adult sockeye instead of the normal four.

"When we get under 200,000 adult sockeye returning to Bonneville (Dam), we just can't have a wide-open fishery," said Chris Donley, fish program manager for the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife at Spokane.

He said reducing days per week and reducing the bag limit is designed to stretch the season.

"We will probably have 9,000 to 10,000 fish in the quota."

Most sockeye in the basin return to the Columbia River, which is where nearly all fishing takes place. Snake River sockeye are endangered and for years have been hanging on by a thread. There is no fishing season for them.

Fisheries managers predicted 3,100 to return to the Snake River and head for the Sawtooth Valley in south central Idaho.

As of Monday, 48 Snake River sockeye implanted with tracking tags had been detected at Bonneville Dam on the Columbia River. Only a percentage of the fish are tagged. Eric Johnson, a fisheries biologist with the Idaho Department of Fish and Game, wrote in an update on the run that those 48 tagged fish represent an estimated 1,298, and based on historic timing, about 42% of the run has likely passed the dam. He said five of the tagged fish had been detected at Lower Granite Dam but most of them remain between Bonneville and McNary Dams.

Both sockeye salmon and steelhead returning to the Columbia River Basin are prone to yo-yo-like patterns. Even years tend to see higher abundance and odd years tend to see lower numbers. The pattern is a response to and an echo of pink salmon abundance in the Pacific Ocean. They boom in odd years. Donley said forecasts are calling for a return of 8 million pinks to the Puget Sound and 27 million to the Fraser River in Canada.

The Columbia River steelhead forecast calls for returns of about 75,000 fish, including 55,600 A-run steelhead bound for tributaries upstream of Bonneville Dam and 11,800 B-run fish.

"We should be able to fish everywhere, there just won't be a lot of fish around," Donley said. "Certain groups could be weak and we may have to close them like we have in the past. I'm not panicking yet. We have a month and a half to make those decisions."

Idaho's catch-and-release season started Tuesday.

Related Pages:
Report says Snake River Chinook and Steelhead Still in Peril by Eric Barker, Lewiston Tribune, 4/15/25
Chinook Fishery to Stay Open After All by Eric Barker, Moscow-Pullman Daily News, 5/15/25
Chinook Anglers Get Seven Days Per Week by Eric Barker,Moscow-Pullman Daily News, 5/14/25
Spring Chinook Fishery on Snake River to Close May 16 by Staff Daily Fly, 5/13/25
Salmon Counts at Bonneville Allow Reopening of Sportfishing by Bill Monroe, The Oregonian, 5/7/25
Anglers Get a Brief Crack at Chinook by Eric Barker, Lewiston Tribune, 5/2/25
As Chinook Run Surges, So Does Uncertainty by Eric Barker, Lewiston Tribune, 5/19/23