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As Chinook Run Surges, So Does Uncertainty by Eric Barker Lewiston Tribune, May 19, 2023

With size of this year's run still unknown,
fisheries managers set contrasting policies

Spring chinook continued their late surge over the past week, erasing what appeared just 10 days ago to be an unfortunate tanking of the run.

Yet significant uncertainty remains. The unknown is reflected in recent changes in opposite directions to fisheries throughout the Columbia River Basin.

The Idaho Fish and Game Commission cut daily bag limits on the lower Salmon and Little Salmon rivers Thursday to one adult hatchery spring chinook per day, citing lower-than-expected returns of fish bound for Rapid River Hatchery.

Also on Thursday, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife was mulling a move to reopen its fishing seasons at Little Goose and Ice Harbor dams. Those seasons were shut down earlier this month when the run failed to show up on time.

On Wednesday, Oregon and Washington approved six additional days of spring chinook fishing, starting today, on the lower and middle sections of the Columbia River, and will consider next week if that season should be extended.

What gives?

On Monday, regional fisheries managers downgraded their forecast for the run, saying they now expect 139,000 adult spring chinook bound for tributaries above Bonneville Dam to return from the Pacific Ocean. That includes just 9,000 wild Snake River spring chinook listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act.

The run forecast is subject to change. For nine days starting May 8, the fish surged over Bonneville Dam, with daily counts ranging between 4,500 and 7,200. Regional fisheries managers noted the late movement and called their updated forecast a "minimum return," meaning it may grow. But the surge mellowed Wednesday when the daily count at Bonneville Dam dropped to about 2,600 adult fish.

Joe DuPont, regional fish manager for the Idaho Department of Fish and Game at Lewiston, noted that, in addition to spring chinook counts falling Wednesday, steelhead, jack chinook, summer chinook and shad counts all dipped as well, indicating the drop off may be flow related. Fisheries managers are expected to meet again next week and may offer another update.

Because the run is so late, harvest quotas on the lower Columbia River, even with the downgraded forecast, have ample cushion remaining. The river is rising there, which may make for poor fishing during the weeklong extension.

DuPont said the harvest share on the Rapid River run is now estimated to be about 1,700, down from more than 3,000. On the Clearwater, the harvest share is about 3,000 a slight bump from the preseason forecast of 2,600. He said harvest shares are unlikely to change much as the season progresses, but the fish are finally starting to hit Idaho rivers.

"I expect fishing to be decent this weekend," said DuPont of the Clearwater.

As of Wednesday, counts at Bonneville Dam were running neck-and-neck with the 10-year average. At Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River, more than 900 spring chinook were counted Wednesday, bringing the seasonal total to about 3,500. The 10-year average is nearly 23,000.