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Cold Weather Heats Up Worries about Electricity by Gail Kinsey Hill, Oregonian staff The Oregonian, December 7, 2000

A frigid blast next week could knock stressed Northwest utilities into emergency mode

Frigid weather bearing down on the Northwest could force the region into an electricity crunch and compel utilities to activate an alert system calling for increased generation and voluntary cutbacks in energy use.

At this point, energy officials say enough electricity should be available to handle a cold snap expected to hit early next week.

"It will be extremely tight, but we should be able to squeak by," said Rich Nassief, director of the Northwest Power Pool, which coordinates power operations for utilities in the Northwest and Western Canada.

A special Emergency Response Team will meet Friday to evaluate weather conditions and decide on any emergency action.

If a new, three-tiered alert plan is activated, it could include public appeals to cut back on energy use. Likely suggestions: restrict Christmas tree and other holiday lighting and turn down thermostats several degrees.

"We're on the ragged edge" of a shortage, said Ed Mosey, a spokesman for the Bonneville Power Administration, which markets power from federal dams on the Columbia-Snake River Basin.

Several years ago, economic growth and an accompanying jump in demand for electricity began pushing the region closer to the potential for shortages. But mild winters and plenty of rain kept rivers and reservoirs generating electricity full and deficits at bay.

Now there's little cushion to absorb spikes in demand, which occur when temperatures plummet and consumers turn up thermostats. Additional generation isn't expected to be available until 2002 or later.

California complicates the situation. Usually California uses less electricity in the winter months and sells surplus power to the Northwest. But this year, after a sweltering summer in which air conditioners and power plants rarely rested, much of the state's generation has been taken down for repairs. Little, if any, extra power is available for export.

"California used to be a significant supplier of bulk power for us, but now there's none to be had," said Greg Delwiche, vice president of generation supply for the BPA.

Contrary to seasonal patterns, California is experiencing shortages of its own. Cold weather and off-line generation has forced the state to enact its own emergency plan. Earlier this week, the declaration of a Stage 2 emergency included statewide requests to squelch holiday lights for a few hours.

California has yet to declare a Stage 3 emergency, the most severe level, in which temporary blackouts are likely. But colder weather due later this week could force such measures.

Here's how the Northwest alert system would work, starting with the least serious level:

• Level 1: Utilities, such as Pacific Power and Portland General Electric, are told to put all generation into use and curtail any unnecessary power sales. They buy power on the wholesale market, no matter the cost.

• Level 2: "At this point, we're definitely in an energy deficit situation," Nassief said. Utilities begin aggressively looking for ways to reduce electricity use, from curtailing power to businesses without guaranteed contracts to asking residential consumers to voluntarily cut back on consumption.

• Level 3: "That's when it hits the fan, so to speak," Nassief said. Utilities begin cutting power to businesses and households on a rotating basis and for short periods of time. These are known as "rolling blackouts."

Nassief knows of no time when blackouts have been imposed in the Northwest.

The last time Oregon experienced a severe cold snap and a possible electricity shortage was December 1989. Weather warmed before emergency measures became necessary.

In late 1973, then-Gov. Tom McCall issued a mandatory power curtailment for the state. The executive order banned the use of "nonessential" outdoor lights. But heavy rain in December eased an energy shortage and prompted McCall to lift the ban.

This winter, fears of an energy crunch have pushed wholesale electricity prices through the roof. "Prices in general have really skyrocketed," said Marlene Huntsinger, head of power trading for Portland General Electric.

Contracts to secure power through the balance of December have carried prices ranging from $900 a megawatt hour to $1,300 a megawatt hour, she said.

Huntsinger declined to disclose precisely what PGE has paid for power recently but confirmed that the utility has been buying extra power to make sure it has enough resources to meet a spike in demand should the cold snap hit.

Utilities suffer when prices spike, because they must continue to sell much of their electricity under regulated rates of about $50 a megawatt hour.

Energy watchers aren't worried about this weekend, when the National Weather Service predicts temperatures will drop in the Portland area to lows in the 30s, highs in the 40s and a chance of rain.

But they have their eyes on Monday through Wednesday, when lows between 15 and 20 degrees are predicted. Highs are expected to be in the mid-30s.