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Analysts: Trump Unlikely to Continue Snake River Dam Breaching Push by Matthew Weaver Capital Press, November 8, 2024

Stakeholders' opinions are mixed on how Donald Trump's return to the White House will impact the federal agreement made between the Biden administration and several Tribes and the states of Oregon and Washington in December, viewed as a path toward breaching the four lower Snake River dams.

Any effort to breach the dams would have to be funded and approved by Congress, said Todd Myers, vice president of research at the Washington Policy Center.

"There's no chance of that right now," Myers said. "The Republican Congress are not going to do that, and Donald Trump is not going to agree to that as part of the budget."

He believes breaching has been taken off the table for at least four years.

"The longer this gets postponed, the less likely it becomes, because the more obvious it becomes that we need that energy," Myers said. "Even Gov. Inslee is now admitting we have an energy shortage and we have to build a lot more capacity. I think that reality has become more and more stark as times goes on, which makes those dams even more valuable."

Myers welcomes the portion of the agreement that calls for additional research to bolster salmon recovery.

"The part that I think needs to be reconsidered are the parts that are intended to drive electricity costs up," he said. "There's a part of that deal designed to make electricity from the Snake River dams expensive as a way to justify their removal. I think some of those things will be reconsidered."

Shifting priorities

"Obviously there is going to be a huge shift in the executive branch's priorities," said Anthony Pena, government relations manager for the Pacific Northwest Waterways Association. "We still need to see who gets appointed to different agency positions and roles within the agencies. I think that will have a lot of impact on how things move forward. A lot remains to be seen at this moment just because it is so early."

Myers doesn't expect the Snake River dams to be at the top of Trump's priority list. But he predicts a general mood in the Trump administration to undo many of the things the Biden administration did.

Recent breaching efforts were primarily pushed by political forces in the Biden administration and not the scientists, he said, with political appointees at NOAA releasing "their own report that in some ways contradicted what the scientists of NOAA were saying.

"Farmers have enough to worry about; for now, this is one less thing to worry about," Myers said. "It will be an ongoing fight. We've been fighting this for a quarter of a century at least, so it's not going away, but I think for the next four years, the chances of something happening are very low."

The next challenge

Meyers expects further efforts to get something done through lawsuits.

"Activists are going to continue to press on this issue, even if they don't have a friendly administration," he said. "They will find ways as they have for the last quarter-century."

The December agreement included an “unprecedented” 10-year break from decades-long litigation against the federal government’s operation of its Pacific Northwest dams.

"I would be skeptical," Meyers said. "There are just too many environmental organizations out there to constrain. ... I think there are enough folks who will do their own thing. I wouldn't be surprised if some environmental groups said, 'Now that Trump's in charge, we have to use all the tools available to us.’"

"Undoubtedly there will be impacts but what those will be are not yet clear," said Amanda Goodin, supervising senior attorney for Earthjustice, a nonprofit law firm that represents the environmental groups and others who have sued over the river system.

What has not changed are the circumstances that led to the agreement, she said.

"Snake River salmon remain on the brink of extinction," Goodin said. "A comprehensive vision for Columbia Basin restoration continues to hold promise for the region, and we will continue to work to make that vision a reality. We can restore native fisheries and uphold tribal treaty obligations while also modernizing our region’s energy, irrigation and transportation infrastructure in a way that strengthens the Northwest’s resilience, provides customers with affordable and reliable clean energy, and benefits Columbia Basin communities and tribes."

Leaving it alone

Darryl Olsen, board representative for the Columbia-Snake River Irrigators Association, doesn't think Trump would step into the ongoing legal battle.

"I think the highest probability is the new administration will not upset the current litigation process," he said. "Anything underneath the settlement agreement is probably going to take four years anyway. Trump himself would be termed out by the time any kind of decision needed to be made."

A U.S. federal district court oversees the settlement agreement.

"It's no easy task, or a necessarily prudent task, to go in and try to tamper with what's an ongoing court decision, particularly a U.S. federal district judge," Olsen said.

The Trump administration might just leave the situation alone, he said.

"It could be fairly dangerous to start tampering with what the Tribes would say is treaty rights, and the federal agencies' responsibility to keep the settlement agreement in place," Olsen said.

The most pivotal change will be the new chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, which oversees the Columbia River Task Force, he said.

"I can't see any political wins for the Trump administration by coming in to Washington and Oregon and trying to upset the apple cart," he said. "There's nothing to be gained by going out there and basically being provocative with the Nez Perce Tribe."

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If Snake River Dams are Breached, What Would Happen? We Must Get Our Message Out by Editorial Board, Tri-City Herald, 12/14/18