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Summer Blackouts Unlikely by Gail Kinsey Hill The Oregonian, May 26, 2001

Rolling outages in the Northwest aren't expected,
thanks to emergency measures, but the long-term crisis in not over

Emergency measures have all but erased the possibility of rolling blackouts in the Northwest this summer, according to an updated assessment released Friday by the Northwest Power Planning Council.

"The crisis is not over, but the situation, at least for the summer, has improved," said Larry Cassidy, chairman of the Northwest Power Planning Council, an organization responsible for assessing electricity supplies in Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Montana.

But the quick fixes, from aluminum smelter shutdowns to revved up diesel generators to altered hydro operations, have taken their toll on the economy, the environment and endangered salmon, the report found.

"Everyone should realize that much of the improved outlook comes by way of emergency actions that have cut jobs, curtailed fish operations at the dams and compromised air quality," Cassidy said. "Short-term fixes are appropriate at times of crisis but do not provide long-term sustainable solutions for the region."

The outlook for next winter also has improved, although power shortfalls remain a concern. According to the analysis, the probability of rolling blackouts in December, February and March dropped to 17 percent from 20 percent.

The council didn't place a probability factor on the summer months because "it's so close to zero we're confident we're going to make it through," said John Harrison, a council spokesman.

Near-drought conditions continue to grip the region, reducing water flows and crimping the ability of the vast Columbia-Snake River hydrosystem to generate electricity. 2001 remains the second-driest year on record.

Long-term, Cassidy said, the public needs to take conservation more seriously, and developers need to build more generating plants, including those reliant on renewable resources, such as wind.

Details of the analysis include:

• Demand in the Northwest has dropped by as much as 3,500 megawatts, a 17 percent reduction. Most of the decrease comes from large industries, which have shut down or curtailed operations, and from farmers, who have reduced irrigation. Thousands of jobs have been lost.

• Temporary generators have boosted power supplies by about 500 megawatts. Many are diesel-powered, which produce more air pollutants than other types of generation.

• Two large gas-fired plants, scheduled for completion late in the summer, will permanently increase supplies by about 750 megawatts. Some of the power will be sold into the Northwest, and some will be exported to other Western states.

• Federal dams on the Snake and Columbia rivers have generated additional power this spring by withholding water that could have been spilled to help juvenile salmon and steelhead migrate to the ocean. Some reduction in the survival of these fish is anticipated.

• Conservation efforts have been mildly successful and could improve as the summer progresses.

"Conservation is probably one of our weakest areas," said Dick Watson, the council's power planning director.

The council, composed of representatives from the four Northwest states, is charged with balancing the operation of the region's electric power system with fish and wildlife recovery

Eric Bloch, the council's Oregon representative, said he will continue to emphasize conservation and will push for additional generation "of the right type." Bloch favors a variety of new generation, from gas-fired turbines to wind power.

Bloch said the improved conditions should give the Bonneville Power Administration an incentive to increase fish spills at dams throughout the Columbia-Snake River Basin.

In recent months, Bloch and Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber have criticized the federal agency, which markets almost half the electric power consumed in the Northwest, for limits placed on the spills. The limits are allowed in "emergency" situations to generate power.

The BPA has argued that tight water supplies make it difficult to spill normal amounts of water.

Earlier this month, the BPA ordered the opening of spillways at two federal dams, and on Friday evening it announced spills at two more.

Dulcy Mahar, a BPA spokeswoman, said the improved conditions outlined in the Northwest Power Council's report prompted the latest spills, which will continue at least through the weekend. Still, the amount of spill this spring and summer will be well short of federal requirements for fish recovery.

Spills remain controversial. Sending water over spillways gives salmon a safer way to get past dams but means less electricity is generated because less water is sent through turbines. The spills also reduce storage in reservoirs, a compromise that increases the risk that there won't be enough water to generate all the power needed this winter.

The federal salmon recovery plan normally requires that millions of gallons of water be sent through spillways each spring and summer.

Earlier this week, the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission and two Columbia Basin tribes filed a motion opposing a proposal to let a utility in Washington state stop spilling water for salmon this summer if the BPA needs the power.

The tribes said they are opposed to trading spill in one part of the river for spill in another part of the river. "We want spill to continue as much as possible," said Charles Hudson, a spokesman for the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission. "We don't want the swap."

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