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Breaching: The Impacts are Spilling Forth by Glen Squires - Washington Wheat Commision WHEAT LIFE November 1999

The effects of breaching dams are not minimal. The $20-million Lower Snake River Feasibility Study conducted by the Corps of Engineers attempted to leave no stone unturned in analyzing all aspects associated with breaching dams as a solution to get more fish into the river system. While not exhaustive, the following are some of those findings . . .

Power

Lost hydropower generation capacity of the four Snake River dams would be replaced by existing thermal power plants and by building additional natural gas fired combined-cycle combustion turbine plants. There would be a shift in composition of local populations and decreased air quality. The loss of hydropower would also effect BPA's ability to transmit electricity throught the Pacific Northwest and the Pacific Southwest.

Power capacity of the four Snake River dams is 3483 megawatts (only 1231 megawatts are currently produced, because of the volume of water now being spilled over the dams). The total cost of lost power would be $251- to $291- million annually, which includes:

• Replacing lost power -- $221- to $255- million annually.
• Cost to reinforce transmission system and ensure system reliability -- $22- to $28-million annualy.
• Loss in ancilary benefits -- $8 million yearly.
• Costs paid by PNW ratepayers. Estimated monthly electric bill increases:
  • Residential $1.50 - $5.30
  • Commercial $9 - $29
  • Industrial $222,000 - $758,000

The analysis does not take into account the possiblity that large industrial users, such as aluminum companies, may be unwilling to pay the increases and could make one of two choices: purchase power from other investor-owned utilities at the same price currently offered by BPA or simply move operations off-shore. Such a move could have massive ripple effects throughout the PNW. The resultant shift of burden to residential ratepayers under these scenarios is not considered.

Real Estate

Legislation in 1945 enabled land acquistion in support of the construction of the four Snake River Dams. Breaching the dams would deactivate or "mothball" the structures until scientists determine if breaching is, in fact, biologically beneficial for salmon. If not, the Corps suggests the dams would be reactivated.

• 60,500 acres were orginally acquired.
• An estimated 14,000 acres of de-watered land would be exposed.
• Corps would continue to manage the land until dams are fully decommisionsed.
• Restoration of previously submerged lands would be required.
• Private entities would be last in line for any disposed-of land.

The Corps states that public control of a significant portion of project lands would be necessary to protect the environment and natural benefits to the salmon derived from reservoir drawdown. Existing leases to state and local governments and private entities for recreation and fish and wildlife management would likely be modified and expanded.

Water Supply

Irrigated agriculture centered in Franklin and Walla Walla counties is the dominant user of water pumped from the Snake River. The economic effects of breaching are described based on pump modification costs and changes in farmland value and net income.

• 37,000 acres affected including 75 pumps with 42,000 horsepower.
• 23 percent of the acres are in cottonwood/poplar production: 15 percent in potatoes.
• Orchards, vineyards and wheat also comprise significant acreage.

Pump Modification

Since individual pump modification was deemed unrealistic, due to low water levels and a meandering river with high volumes of sediment, it was determine that one large pumping station with a distribution system to deliver water to the various would be the only practical option. A sediment control reservoir would also be needed.

• Construction cost would be $291,481,000
• Operation and maintenance estimate cost -- $3,573,000 per year.
• Modified pump construction initiated 18 months before breaching.
• Increase energy use and cost of power to water user.
• Municipal and industrial pump stations centered on the Lower Granite Pool would require an additional $11- to $55-million in modifications.
• Private wells within one mile of the river number 228 with 95 requiring modification due to the effects of dam breaching. Cost would run close to %57 million.

Farm Land Value

The Corps arrives at an average $4100 per acre value of irrigated farmland. Through a series of calculations, the Corps estimates that the economic effect of dam breaching, measured on the basis of a change in farmland value, is equal to $134,240,000. Approaching the issue from a change in net farm income, the value rises slightly to $145,600,000. Current land market values are estimated to be:

• $2500 to $3500 per acre for row crops.
• $10,000 to $15,000 per acre for apple and cherry orchards.
• $5500 to 9500 for mature vineyards.
• $2500 to $3500 per acre for poplars.
• Non-irrigated farmland is between $75 and $150 per acre.

Bottom Line

Because of the high cost to modify pump stations, it has been determined that taking farmland out of production under dam-breach conditions provides the most reasonable (least cost) estimate. While there continue to be unresolved issues about the effects on irrigated agriculture, the Corps is quick to point out that the results of the Snake River Feasibility Study are "not likely to be very sensitive to the irrigatioin analysis, so it does not appear worthwhile to dedicate significant study resources to refining previous estimates."

* Next month, a look at the social, transportation and engineering effects of breaching.