Annual New Renewable Capacity
Forecasts project that 70% of new power generation capacity added between 2012 and 2030
will be from renewable technologies (including large hydro).
Annual investment in new renewable power capacity is set to rise by anywhere from two and a half times to more than four and a half times between now and 2030, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The company projects a jump of 230%, to $630bn per year by 2030, driven by further improvements in the cost-competitiveness of wind and solar technologies relative to fossil fuel alternatives, as well as an increase in the roll-out of non-intermittent clean energy sources like hydro, geothermal and biomass.
It shows the investment requirement for new clean energy assets in the year 2030 at $630bn (in nominal terms), more than three times the investment in the renewable energy capacity that was built in 2012. This 2030 investment figure is 35% higher than that produced in Bloomberg New Energy Finance's last global forecast a year ago, and the projection for total installed renewable energy capacity by that date is 25% higher than in that previous forecast, at 3,500GW.
In the power sector, the research company's latest forecasts project that 70% of new power generation capacity added between 2012 and 2030 will be from renewable technologies (including large hydro). Only 25% will be in the form of coal, gas or oil, the remaining being nuclear. The scenarios are based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance's latest projections for coal and gas prices. For gas, these assume prices stabilise in real terms at $6, $9 and $11/MMBtu in the US, Europe and the Asia respectively.
For comparison, the International Energy Agency's New Policies scenario forecasts that 57% of power capacity added during this period will be from renewable resources (including large hydro).
Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that wind and solar will take up the largest shares of new power capacity added in terms of GW by 2030, accounting for 30% and 24% respectively. By 2030 renewable technologies will account for 50% of new power generation capacity installed around the world, up from 28% in 2012. In terms of power produced, the share of renewables will increase from 22% in 2012 to 37% in 2030.
The New Normal scenario's outlook for global biofuel production in 2030 is that it will increase by around 200% from 120bn litres in 2012, to 370 billion litres in 2030.
The future under Bloomberg New Energy Finance's other two scenarios look somewhat different, although in both cases, there will be further growth in renewable energy demand. Capital requirements for renewable energy could reach $880bn by 2030, under the Barrier Busting assumptions ($9.3 trillion cumulative from 2013). This would require an additional $2 trillion (22% increase) invested in supporting infrastructure such as long distance transmission systems, smart grids, storage and demand response. Under a more pessimistic view of the world, in the Traditional Territory scenario, renewable energy investment requirements are projected to be $470bn by 2030 ($6.1 trillion cumulative).
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