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NOAA Group Forecasts Strong Salmon Returns in 2003 by CBB Staff Columbia Basin Bulletin - March 21, 2003

Adult coho and chinook salmon from the West Coast now in the ocean and preparing to return to their native streams or hatcheries are showing up in historical numbers, according to early estimates compiled by a group led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Marine Fisheries Service.

Fishing options adopted March 14 by a federal fishery panel for this year's Washington ocean chinook and coho salmon seasons point to this relative abundance of stocks returning to the Columbia River and other state waters.

The Pacific Fishery Management Council has set low, medium and high fishing options for public review. The panel will adopt one option for chinook and coho salmon coastal fisheries at its April 7-11 meeting.

The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife will now meet with the public and treaty Indian fishery co-managers to discuss the options and develop fisheries plans for state waters that are consistent with PFMC's ocean season options. The recreational fishing options are:

Option 1 -- 59,600 chinook and 225,000 coho; Option 2 -- 56,000 chinook and187,500 coho; and Option 3 -- 47,500 chinook and 150,000 coho.

By comparison, the 2002 recreational ocean fishing quotas were 60,252 chinook and 109,630 coho.

Preliminary numbers show "ocean abundance" estimates for Oregon coastal and Columbia River naturally spawned and hatchery coho salmon up 185 percent over the recent 10-year average of actual returns. Predications for 2003 indicate that the number of adult salmon may reach more than 984,000.

"This high forecast of coho about to return to Northwest rivers is great news," said Bob Lohn, regional administrator of the NOAA Fisheries Northwest regional office in Seattle. "It's way above last year's estimate of 434,100 adults and could represent the fourth consecutive year of potential coho returns near or above a million fish."

The early run-size estimates were compiled by a group led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA Fisheries). NOAA is an agency of the Commerce Department. The fishing option ultimately chosen by the PFMC must be approved by NOAA Fisheries.

The majority of the returning salmon for which the council sets harvest limits, such as Oregon coastal and Columbia River coho, are from hatcheries and are generally not listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). The harvests are designed to minimize impacts on salmon listed under the ESA.

In addition to Oregon Coast coho, the preliminary forecasts for Washington coast and Puget Sound coho returns are also showing significant increases over recent actual returns. Predictions call for more than 215,500 naturally spawned coho to return to Washington coast rivers in 2003, an increase of 138 percent over 2001 actual returns. Puget Sound naturally spawned coho are predicted to be nearly double 2001's actual returns of 280,000, with an estimated return of 536,400. (Complete 2002 actual returns are not yet available.)

Similarly, the preliminary numbers show high forecasts for many Northwest chinook runs. Columbia Basin upriver summer chinook continue to return at levels not seen since the 1950s. Columbia Basin upriver summer chinook returns are forecast to be near 90,000 for 2003. Also this year, Mid-Columbia River fall brights are estimated to return at record levels, with about 105,000 fish expected. These forecast returns for both Columbia Basin upriver summer chinook and Mid-Columbia River fall brights represent a tripling of the actual returns from just three years ago.

"This is yet the latest in a continuing positive trend that we're seeing for Pacific Northwest salmon runs," said Lohn. "These estimates are good news for fishermen and are evidence that our efforts to recover salmon runs are having effect."

Lohn underscored, however, that these high forecasts for many runs do not eliminate the region's need to continue recovery efforts of ESA-listed salmon runs. "While a number of ESA-listed salmon runs are exhibiting marked improvement, many listed runs remain in a condition that requires our continued diligence to ensure that they all share in the improved returns," Lohn said.

NOAA Fisheries biologists said favorable ocean conditions are contributing to the strong returns, but also said that conservation efforts already undertaken in the Northwest have played a role in improving the numbers of naturally spawned coho and chinook.

Phil Anderson, WDFW special assistant to the director and the Washington's representative on the PFMC, said the earliest start date for any coastal chinook fishery in areas such as Westport, LaPush and Neah Bay would be June 22. For Columbia River-based fisheries, the earliest starting date would be June 29.

Actual starting dates, regional allocations and other details will be developed before the conclusion of the April PFMC meeting.

"The proposed quotas for 2003 should translate into healthy coastal and recreational fisheries this summer," Anderson said.

All recreational ocean coho fisheries proposed for 2003 would be under selective fisheries rules where anglers would be allowed to retain only hatchery fish, identified by a clipped adipose fin.

Anderson said the options also include a proposal to increase the minimum size required for chinook salmon retention from the current 24-inch minimum length to 26 inches. Daily recreational bag limits are two fish, no more than one of which can be a chinook salmon. One proposal under discussion adds one pink salmon to the daily bag limit in Marine Areas 3 and 4 (LaPush to Neah Bay) for a total of three fish per day.

State and tribal fisheries managers have scheduled two all-day public meetings to develop a comprehensive fishing package for nearshore and freshwater salmon-fishing areas.

The first meeting was held Thursday in Olympia. The second meeting is set for 9 a.m. on April 2 at the SeaTac Holiday Inn, 17338 International Airport Blvd., in SeaTac.

Fisheries managers expect to complete the fishing package at the conclusion of PFMC's final preseason meeting, April 7-11, in Vancouver, Wash.

The majority of the returning salmon for which the council sets harvest limits, such as Oregon coastal and Columbia River coho, are from hatcheries and are generally not listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). The harvests are designed to minimize impacts on salmon listed under the ESA.

Related Sites:
WDFW: www.wa.gov/wdfw/fish/northfalcon
PFMC: www.pcouncil.org/salmon/salpreI03/salpreI03.html
NMFS: www.nmfs.noaa.gov
NOAA: www.noaa.gov