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What If ... A Look at the Fallout If the Lower Snake River Dams are Demolished by Matthew Weaver Capital Press, April 20, 2024

The tribes and environmentalists say removing the dams
is necessary for the recovery of several salmon species.

Final authority to breach the four lower Snake River dams remains with the 535 members of Congress.

But agricultural stakeholders, tribes and environmental groups agree on one thing: The Columbia Basin Restoration Initiative recently signed by the Biden administration, four Northwest tribes and the states of Oregon and Washington is a pathway to breaching the dams.

The tribes and environmentalists say removing the dams is necessary for the recovery of several salmon species.

But agricultural stakeholders say tearing out the dams would have many other impacts, including irrigation water availability, power supply and transportation. Combined, replacing them or creating work-arounds would cost taxpayers tens of billions of dollars, they say.

Whether the dams -- Ice Harbor, Lower Monumental, Little Goose and Lower Granite -- ever come out is anyone's guess, but if they did, what would the impact to the region be?

That's something the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has studied "off and on" for more than 25 years, said Dylan Peters, public affairs specialist for the Corps district in Walla Walla, Wash.

The Corps will next study the impacts on transportation and recreation if the dams are removed. Those studies have not yet been funded, Peters said.

Under the new agreement, the federal government will review existing environmental compliance documents -- such as the 2020 Columbia River System Operations environmental impact statement -- and any additional information provided by the states, tribes and other stakeholders, and "initiate any additional environmental compliance its review determines to be necessary."

The federal government is still discussing the steps it will take to meet that commitment, Peters said.

Some aren't sure about salmon recovery

If the dams are taken out, is fish recovery guaranteed?

The answer depends on who you ask. Environmentalists see it as a silver bullet, allowing the salmon to thrive. Others, including agricultural groups, aren't so sure.

"The short answer is yes," said Brian Brooks, executive director of the Idaho Wildlife Federation. "Thousands of scientists ... and other representative organizations who have dedicated their lives to fish and fish conservation have confirmed, by their expert opinion, that fish would return."

"We have a really high confidence that we can recover healthy, abundant salmon and steelhead populations," said Bill Arthur, chair of the Snake and Columbia River Salmon campaigns for the Sierra Club. "That's based on the science, reports and studies that have been done, as well as the history of the area and with other dam removals."

To achieve "healthy and abundant" population benchmarks, Brooks, Arthur and other environmentalists point to Snake River spring and summer chinook smolt-to-adult return ratios (SARs). They should be a sustained 4% or more, but have been below 1% for years, they say.

"That low level of returns will lead to extinction," said Amanda Goodin, senior attorney for Earthjustice, a nonprofit law firm with more than 200 lawyers who represent environmental groups.

"NOAA Fisheries does not rely heavily on SARs as a barometer because they do not capture survival across the whole life cycle," said Michael Milstein, public affairs officer for NOAA Fisheries.

Last year, NOAA West Coast Regional Office branch chief Ritchie Graves estimated about a 75% survival rate for salmon moving through the four lower Snake River dams. Mortality would likely be cut in half if the dams were removed, he estimated.

However, warming ocean conditions and delayed mortality -- when juvenile fish die later as a result of stress from passing through the dams -- are unknown variables for fish survival.

"Currently, there are varied projections" for delayed mortality, Milstein said. "If there is high delayed mortality, then there may be a greater effect from breaching."

Tribes would look to stabilize habitat

Before the dams were built, tributaries to the Columbia River ran wild, including the Snake, said Austin Smith Jr., general manager for the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs natural resources branch.

"They ran a little bit lower, you had free-moving bodies of water that allowed salmon to travel through these areas into farther reaches into the mountains and other tributaries," he said.

Tribal members would travel along the tributaries, using trails, campsites and fishing sites, Smith said.

If the dams are removed, the land would be used to restore habitat that has been "basically flooded for years since the dams were put in," he said. That includes stabilizing habitat for fish, birds and other wildlife and replanting native vegetation and trees, with "more fertile soil" from increased sediment.

"When these dams were put in, it flooded a lot of historical villages, grave sites, medicinal gathering areas and cultural food gathering areas," Smith said. "The Tribes would probably want an extensive study done to identify some of the key areas where the Tribes used to be."

Representatives of the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation and Confederated Tribes of the Yakama Nation declined to comment for this story. Representatives of the Nez Perce Tribe did not respond to Capital Press requests for comment.

The river's behavior dependent on upstream dams

River volumes would not change a great deal, as the dams are run of the river, with no flood storage capacity, said Peters, the Corps spokesman. River velocities would increase.

River behavior would also be subject to upstream operations at the three Hells Canyon dams, he said.

Water temperatures could be expected to be higher, unless the Corps is required to continue releasing water from Dworshak Dam on the Clearwater River to cool the Snake River, he said.

With the dams gone, river flows would likely move sediments downstream, causing short term impacts on all species in the lower Snake River and possibly into the McNary Reservoir on the Columbia River near Kennewick, Wash.

"Presently, lessons are being learned on this topic from the removal of the Klamath River dams," Peters said.

There's currently no indication that any communities would be displaced or lose ground, but erosion along the river banks could be expected because of increased water velocities, Peters said.

Barging transportation would cease

Barging would no longer be a viable transportation method, Peters said.

About 60% of U.S. wheat exports move through the Columbia-Snake river system, including wheat that arrived to Portland/Vancouver by barge, rail and truck. About 10% of all U.S wheat exports arrive to Portland/Vancouver on barges that passed through the lower Snake River dams.

A larger percent of exports arrived to Portland via barge but were loaded on the Columbia below the Snake River dams.

The full Columbia-Snake river system includes barging upriver from Portland/Vancouver and bulk shipping downriver from Portland/Vancouver to ocean.

The dams hold back 80 to 100 feet of water, creating navigation pools deep enough to travel to Lewiston, Idaho, said Rob Rich, vice president of marine services for Shaver Transportation Co., a tug and barge company.

"No dams, no locks, no depth of water, no barge transport," Rich said.

Without the Snake River dams, navigation would go only as far upstream as East Pasco and Burbank, Wash., he said.

Rich estimates 650 to 700 barge loads of wheat originate on the Snake River each year.

Each barge carries 3,600 tons, or 120,000 bushels, of wheat, Rich said.

About 28% of Idaho's wheat crop goes onto barges, said Scott Corbitt, general manager of the Port of Lewiston, which is upstream from the four dams.

Loss of barging would increase grain shipping costs by 30 to 50 cents per bushel, or $70 million a year, Corbitt estimated. Those added costs would have to be absorbed by farmers.

Farming irrigation affected

Dam removal would impact approximately 40,000 acres of irrigated farmland upstream of the Ice Harbor Dam, including orchards, potatoes and other vegetable crops, said Peters, with the Corps.

Related Pages:
Inslee-Murray Report: Snake River Dam Breaching Not Feasible Now by Matthew Weaver, Capital Press, 8/26/22