the film forum library tutorial contact

Extent of Power Crunch has Experts Guessing by Gail Kinsey Hill, Oregonian staff The Oregonian, December 30, 2000

More data are needed to determine how much residents and businesses
will be asked to reduce electricity use

The Northwest's Emergency Response Team, intent on assessing the severity of the electric power crunch in January, pounded away at the available data Friday but failed to nail down an acceptable estimate.

"Everyone agreed we had a problem, but getting a handle on the size of the problem was another thing," said Dulcy Mahar, a response team spokeswoman.

Team members, who included utility executives, energy experts and state and federal government officials responsible for electricity operations in the Northwest, promised to gather more information, re-evaluate the data and meet again Thursday.

The results will serve as the region's official appraisal of the electricity deficit this winter and will determine how much residents and businesses will be asked to reduce the use ofelectricity. Also, the data could prove crucial to deciding whether salmon-recovery efforts will be compromised to increase generation on the Northwest's extensive hydro system.

Before Friday's meeting, Bonneville Power Administration, the federal power marketer for electricity generated by 29 dams on the Columbia-Snake River Basin, released data pegging the January energy deficit at 4,000 average megawatts, or 15 percent of estimated electricity demand. BPA officials admitted some of the numbers are out of date and might be unreliable, but are the most recent available.

"These are stale figures," said Mahar, also a BPA spokeswoman.

Dick Watson, director of the power division for the Northwest Power Planning Council and a member of the response team, said the group discussed three analyses, each with a different conclusion. The BPA estimates showed the largest deficit, Watson said.

"They all indicated a problem, some more than others," he said.

The meeting, a conference call, was closed to the media.

The scenario for an electricity shortage throughout the West began taking shape in the mid-1990s, as the region grew rapidly. Regulatory uncertainties, however, discouraged the development of new generation facilities.

Now, below-normal rainfall and snowpacks, along with fish-recovery requirements, are further straining the ability of the region's hydro system to churn out extra electricity.

What's more, California officials, facing their own energy crisis, told Northwest operators recently they wouldn't have any power to sell to their northern neighbors in the winter, as they had in the past.

"The loss of flexibility we previously had makes us very nervous," Mahar said.

Gov. John Kitzhaber and other Western governors are expected to issue a joint appeal early next week for energy conservation. Later in the week, Kitzhaber will offer a detailed plan for cutting back on electricity use.

Kitzhaber is waiting for the response team's report before deciding on the scope of his call for conservation.