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Emergency Power Plan Could Get Early Use by Mike O'Bryant Columbia Basin Bulletin - December 8, 2001

A plan on what to do if a cold snap causes power shortages in the Northwest could get its first test next week. The long-term weather forecast is predicting temperatures in the mid-teens in Portland beginning early next week. If that happens, it could trigger an emergency plan power organizations have worked on since September.

Depending on how cold it gets, the plan calls for the Northwest to shut down some exports of electricity out of the region and presses for voluntary cutbacks in electricity use in homes and businesses. It also calls for shutting down government offices, importing as much electricity as is available and stepping away from actions at dams, such as certain levels of river flow, that aid salmon recovery.

Otherwise, the region could come dangerously close to greater demand for power than it has power to deliver, according to power system experts at this week's Northwest Power Planning Council meeting.

"The goal is to avoid a power emergency," said Dick Watson, of the Council, about the new plan. "The early warning in this plan allows us to take action, begin regional coordination and communicate with policy makers and the public."

He said the early (three-day) warning expands what can be done, such as repositioning water in the system to provide river flow where it can best be used by generators and to defer maintenance at dams, assuring that as many generators as possible can run.

The power system experienced several emergencies this summer, beginning June 26 when the Northwest's only nuclear plant tripped off line. July 31 through Aug. 3 the California independent system operator declared a Stage 3 alert at the same time a fire at Grand Coulee shut down some generators. A fire in Montana took out a major transmission line in Montana Aug. 9 and Aug. 21 an expected resource insufficiency was declared in the Northwest.

For that reason, BPA took over the federal Columbia River hydrosystem and operated it strictly for power, not for fish during August. If an emergency is declared this winter, that could mean greater fluctuations in river levels, deeper drafts at dams, making it more difficult to refill, a deferral of turbine repairs to the spring or changes this winter to chum flows below Bonneville Dam.

For the California emergencies, the Northwest sent a lot of power south, according to Donald Sampson, executive director of the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission.

"We sent a lot of electricity down and cut flows, while Bonneville made a bundle of money -- about $500 million in six weeks," Sampson said. "Yet, BPA didn't spend a dime of that on fish and wildlife mitigation. How do we know that mitigation will be accounted for if we have another emergency?"

"If we get into a problem this winter, we'll need to rely on imports," Watson said. "We took steps reducing spill this summer for California and we have to expect they'll reciprocate."

He said a group of Northwest representatives is planning a fact-finding mission to California and one of the issues they'll explore is the notion of reciprocity.

In fact, how well the Northwest survives a winter emergency depends partly on how much power is available from California and this year that may not be much. Typically, the Northwest exports power to California during the summer to help meet that state's air conditioning loads and imports in the winter when heating loads cause peak demand. However, after a summer of running generators full time, some California generators are being closed down for maintenance, reducing the amount of electricity that would be available this winter for Northwest markets.

Recent studies show that if the Northwest experiences extremely cold weather, there is a possibility power shortages might occur:

• The Council's power system adequacy study identified some probability of a power shortfall some time over the next three winters.
• The Northwest Power Pool says that if the power system experiences an extreme peak in electric usage -- something that could occur in one out of 20 winters -- even if the hydroelectric and thermal power plants are run full out, there would be no margin left in the power system.
• The Bonneville Power Administration predicted a 4 percent to 11 percent probability of not meeting load at some point during the one in 20 winter.

One reason the Northwest is facing a potential emergency is that growing demand for electricity has not been matched by the construction of new power plants to meet that demand. An additional 1,600 MW of power plants will come on line by 2002, which will ease the emergency situation next winter, but will not help this year. And a total of about 3,000 MW will come on line in the next three years, according to Jeff King, Council staff.

While the new construction looks like it will help meet future electricity emergencies, it may actually exacerbate a problem for another fuel. Most of those new power plants are fueled by natural gas and running them at full output during a cold spell could cause a shortage of natural gas, according to John Jones, of the Northwest Gas Association. It's not that natural gas is in short supply, it's that pipeline capacity is nearly full.

As for this year, there is both enough natural gas and enough capacity on Northwest pipelines to meet the needs of current natural gas turbines during a one-in-20 winter cold spell, according to study completed by Terry Morlan, Council staff.

Phil Mesa, of BPA, said the region has developed an energy emergency plan that has three levels of emergency, which are similar to the stages of emergency used in California.

"The warnings provide a sound basis for operating generators outside of their normal operating limits," Mesa said. "The objective of these warnings is to avoid an alert. It tells us what actions we can take so that we never have to deal with a NERC alert."

NERC is the North American Electric Reliability Council, which demands non-voluntary actions if the power system reaches a critical stage. Those actions could include curtailing electricity sales to government and industrial customers.

Level 1 restricts discretionary out of region sales, such as those to California. A treaty with British Columbia, however, could still send up to 700 megawatts of power north. The region could also remove some impediments that restrict certain generators, such as limits on nitrous oxide.

Level 2 would be declared if the region cannot meet firm loads (that with definite contracts to receive energy) without taking extraordinary measures, said Mesa. In that case, the entire system would be operated out of normal operating limits.

Level 3 is when the region can't meet loads. "The response depends on the size of the deficit," Mesa said. "We'd run all resources to their maximum physical limits and states would call for mandatory load reductions."

"This is where the governors' emergency powers come in," said Watson. "States already have plans for mandatory reductions."

"To the extent we can stay within normal operating limits and get through, we will," Mesa said. "But, with what's coming, that may not be enough."

"California had a stage 2 alert four times in the last month," said Tom Karier, Council member from Washington. "Now us. Is there some way of resolving the competing demands between us and California if we end up in this situation next week?"

"Price," said Stan Grace, Council member from Montana. He was referring to the volatility in energy prices this summer and a purchase Portland General Electric made this week at $1,200 per MW. The average cost is around $40.

"But, are we capable of meeting a real emergency if it happens?" asked Oregon Council member John Brogoitti.

Mesa said a BPA analysis for winter readiness between December and February shows that a February cold snap, especially a prolonged one, is generally worse because reservoirs are down.

"In a one-in-20 winter, there is a 90 percent probability there will be some load shortfall where additional load management would be called for," Mesa said.

"The general read on the streets is that things are in good shape, but it's been dry," said Shauna McReynolds, of the Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee. "So next week could be a problem."

Link information:
NWPPC: www.nwppc.org
BPA: www.bpa.gov
Weather service: www.wrh.noaa.gov/Portland