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Corps, State to Partner in Dam Studies by Eric Barker Lewiston Tribune, November 5, 2024

Engineers group to help gauge impacts to recreation
if breaching projects approved

Washington and the Army Corps of Engineers agreed to work together to identify recreation and transportation services that would need to be mitigated if the four lower Snake River dams are ever breached.

The federal agency that operates the dams issued a news release Monday saying it will spend $1.2 million to assess how breaching would impact recreation at the four slack-water reservoirs behind the dams and contribute $750,000 to an already existing study looking at tug-and-barge transportation on the river.

Both studies stem from an agreement announced at the end of last year between the Biden administration, Columbia River tribes like the Nez Perce and other litigants in a decades-old lawsuit over the harm dams cause to wild salmon runs. In exchange for pausing the lawsuit for up to 10 years, the federal government agreed to $1 billion in federal investments, technical assistance and loan guarantees for measures that could advance breaching. One of its many terms included a pledge by the corps and other federal agencies to study dam breaching and how services provided by the dams could be replaced.

"We recognize we have an important job to do," Lt. Col. Katie Werback, commander of the corps' Walla Walla District, said in a news release, "and we will continue meeting all authorized project purposes at the dams in the Columbia River System as we implement these agreements. "Although these studies are purely exploratory and not linked to any immediate federal decision on dam breaching, they are essential for evaluating potential impacts and ensuring the Pacific Northwest is fully prepared for a range of future scenarios."

The tribes, conservation organizations and the state of Oregon say breaching the dams would improve the survival of salmon and steelhead and lead to their recovery. But breaching would dismantle the transportation system on the lower Snake River, reduce output of the Columbia River hydropower system and alter recreation.

It would leave many boat ramps high and dry and the nature of boating would change with the loss of slackwater. But it is expected to improve survival of salmon and steelhead, and thus improve fishing for the species prized by anglers.

"Recreation is a big part of Washington State's culture and identity," Megan Duffy, director of Washington's Recreation and Conservation Office, said in the news release. "Not only does outdoor recreation improve the mental and physical health of our residents, but more than $26 billion is spent on recreation trips and equipment annually, supporting 264,000 jobs across Washington State. It's important that we examine the potential impact to recreation in a scenario where the lower Snake River dams are breached."

Mitigating for the loss of barging between Lewiston and downstream ports as far away as Portland remains one of the highest hurdles for breaching advocates. Most wheat farmers in north central Idaho and southeastern Washington rely on the dams to quickly and efficiently get their crops to overseas markets. A report supported by Sen. Patty Murray and Gov. Jay Inslee, both Washington Democrats, said replacing tug-and-barge transportation on the lower Snake River could cost $969 million to $4.5 billion.

The corps will pitch in $750,000 to an ongoing $4 million transportation study by Washington. The extra money will help pay for expanding the study into Idaho and Oregon, according to the news release.

Multiple Objective 3 - Recreation
Columbia River System Operations
Environmental Impact Statement

The breaching of the four lower Snake River projects would have major adverse effects on current recreation in the short term at the four lower Snake River projects in Region C and Lake Wallula in Region D. In the longer-term, near-natural river conditions could return, which would draw visitors to the region to experience water- and land-based activities associated with the riverine environment.

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Breaching the dams at the four lower Snake River projects in Region C -- Lower Granite Dam, Little Goose Dam, Lower Monumental Dam, and Ice Harbor Dam -- would return the lower Snake River to free-flowing conditions. This substantial change in reservoir and river conditions would affect existing developed and dispersed recreation areas and associated recreational activities. Water-based recreation activities would change from lake or flat-water activities to river-oriented recreation along the lower Snake River. Given the magnitude of these changes, the shift in usage patterns could take years to settle.

Fishing activities, as well as other recreation types, would be considerably reduced in the shorter-term during and immediately following breach, but could rebound in the long term as anadromous fish populations improve. The largest increases in the number of salmon and steelhead are projected under MO3. Therefore, fishing for these anadromous species could increase in the long term in Region C relative to the No Action Alternative. The value for trips could also increase due to increased abundance and diversity of wild fish.

Construction and demolition activities at these projects during the breaching activities would limit access during breaching. Most of the existing facilities were developed around the reservoirs. Pre-dam river stages under dam breaching would range from approximately 8 to 100 feet below current water surface elevations. Existing water-based recreation facilities, such as boat ramps, swimming beaches, and moorage facilities, were designed to operate within very specific ranges of water elevations (generally within 5 feet of full pool). If dam breaching were to occur, none of these facilities could continue to be used without modification or relocation because river stages would be substantially lower than would be anticipated under the No Action Alternative. Some facilities, such as marinas and moorage facilities, would likely be incompatible with river conditions under MO3.

Many lower Snake River recreation areas have upland facilities such as picnic shelters, concrete walks, and interpretive signs that are located near the existing reservoirs. Although the activities that occur at these facilities are not water-dependent, the proximity of water enhances the recreation experience. Some of these facilities, such as picnic tables, could be moved closer to the river. However, other more permanent facilities such as shade structures and parking areas may not be able to be relocated because of the need to allow natural riparian functions to develop along the newly exposed river shorelines. The fish viewing facilities at the four dams would no longer be functional under the new river conditions. Fish viewing opportunities could occur at outdoor interpretive displays. Some sites would simply cease to be used because the features that attracted people would be eliminated, while other sites would be abandoned because they would be so high above or far away from the river that access would be difficult and possibly dangerous.

Dispersed recreation use would likely be reduced in the short term, but would likely return after the breaching activities and in the long term as the river and shoreline stabilize and natural features form. The action of dam breaching itself may draw some curious visitors in the short term. Many of the recreational activities that presently occur at existing dispersed sites could occur at new dispersed sites.

Lake or flatwater-oriented recreation activities, including water skiing, sailing, motorboating (in fiberglass boats), fishing for some warm-water species, and sightseeing in tour boats that cruise between Portland and Lewiston, would no longer be possible if breaching were to occur. Some activities that occur on lakes, such as fishing, swimming, hiking, camping, and wildlife viewing, could still occur. Breaching the dams would also expand opportunities in the long-term for river recreation activities, such as drift boating, rafting, and kayaking that require, or are more favorable under, riverine conditions.

The four lower Snake River projects currently support 0.9 million annual water-based visits, 1.7 million land-based visits, with a total of 2.6 million annual visits overall (i.e., including water- and land-based visits; Table 3-1 and Table 3-3). This is converted to 2.7 million annual recreational visitor days using the methodology described in section 2.1.3 of this appendix. This visitation supports $8.6 million and $23.8 million in annual consumer surplus value (social welfare), for water-based and all visitation, respectively. In the short term, major effects to social welfare would occur associated with the construction and breaching activities, with a large reduction in consumer surplus value of up to $23.8 million with major reductions in both land- and water-based visitors to the area (Table 6-5).

After the construction and breaching activities conclude, it is possible that some of the existing land-based visitation would return, with the potential for up to 1.7 million visitors (land-based visitors pre breach). However, the loss of water-based recreation on the lower Snake reservoirs would result in major adverse effects in the short-term post dam breach, a decrease in consumer surplus of $8.6 million (-36%), compared to $23.8 million under the No Action Alternative.

In the long term, both water-based and land-based river recreation would become re- established. The future physical condition of the river is uncertain, which would affect its suitability for supporting specific types of recreational activities (e.g., river rafting). In addition, it is uncertain how the environment might be managed to achieve other resource goals (e.g., fishing regulations and restrictions associated with the ESA-listed species, particularly Chinook salmon), and the effect these management decisions would have on recreation activities. To provide an estimate of the range of potential recreational use levels that may occur in the long-term under MO3 in the lower Snake River area, this section reviews existing data and past efforts to estimate these effects. The estimates developed suggest that a wide range of potential changes to river-based recreational visitation could occur following dam breach. Information sources for this estimate include the 2002 Lower Snake River Juvenile Salmon Migration Feasibility Report and Environmental Impact Statement (2002 EIS) and visitation estimates to other similar rivers in the region.

2002 Lower Snake River Juvenile Salmon Migration Feasibility Report / Environmental Impact Statement

For the 2002 Lower Snake River Juvenile Salmon Migration Feasibility Report/Environmental Impact Study (2002 EIS), a contingent behavior survey was conducted to estimate how non- fishing recreation use would change if the four lower Snake River dams were breached. Using results from this survey, visitation after dam breach was estimated to be 1.5 million to 2.7 million annual recreational visitor days after full recovery of the natural river system, excluding fishing use. Estimates of fishing visitation specifically for the lower Snake River following dam breach were not estimated (Corps 2002a, p. I3-65 to I3-66).

To provide an updated visitation level, the visitation was adjusted for changes in the target survey populations since the study was conducted. The following counties were used to assess the changes in population from 1998 to 2018. Rural Washington would include the following counties: Adams, Asotin, Benton, Columbia, Franklin, Garfield, Grant, Spokane, Walla, and Whitman. Rural Oregon would include the following counties: Union, Umatilla, and Wallowa. Rural Idaho would include the following counties: Adams, Idaho, Latah, Lewis, and Nez Perce. Based on population adjustments, the updated visitation would range from approximately 1.9 million to 3.4 million (Table 6-4 not shown here).

The Corps had a number of concerns about the survey methods and results from the contingent behavior survey from the 2002 EIS (Corps 2002a, Section 3.2.9). In 2002, the Corps' was concerned that the "potential recreation benefits associated with dam breaching may be significantly overstated." (Corps 2002a, p. I3-74), and these concerns remain. First, the result was much higher than visitation estimates to other free-flowing river/unimpounded river stretches. Second, the results suggested that visitors from California would account for over 30 percent of the visits to a near natural lower Snake River, even though data for other free- flowing rivers/unimpounded river stretches suggested that would be unlikely. Other concerns pertained to representativeness (the target survey response rate was not met), and the associated potential for nonresponse and strategic bias.

Given the Corps' concerns, Table 6-4 also presents adjusted visitation estimates from the 2002 EIS without California visitors. Without California, visitation estimates would range from approximately 1.2 million to 1.9 million, depending on whether the estimates were adjusted to current levels and the extrapolation method used. Visitation to the lower Snake River would be limited by the availability of infrastructure to access river recreational opportunities.

Visitation to Other Similar Rivers in the Region

The 2002 EIS evaluated a number of potential additional comparison sites, including areas along the Main Salmon River, Middle Fork of the Salmon River, and the Hells Canyon stretch of the Snake River. As stated in the 2002 EIS, "it appears that a near-natural lower Snake River would offer a very different type of recreation experience to the region's premier whitewater rivers, such as the Main Salmon River, the Middle Fork of the Salmon River, and the Hells Canyon stretch of the Snake River. In addition to whitewater, these rivers also offer a wilderness experience and spectacular scenery. In terms of accessibility, the range of activities offered, and scenery, a near-natural lower Snake River would appear to have more in common with the lower Deschutes River, the Grand Ronde River, or the lower Salmon River. It would, however, be much larger than these rivers, with about 10 times the flow of the lower Deschutes and Grand Ronde Rivers, and about 5 times the flow of the lower Salmon River. In addition, visitation data for these rivers is limited (Corps 2002b, p. 5.13-18)." The 2002 EIS concluded that "a near-natural lower Snake River would be a fairly unique recreation resource primarily because of its size, accessibility, and the available range of existing recreation facilities and activities" (Corps 2002b, p. 5.13-18).

Despite the limitations, an approach for estimating recreational visitation, primarily for fishing, to the lower Snake River after dam removal would be to consider estimates of current visitation to other rivers in the region. The Hanford Reach of the Columbia River and the North Fork of the Clearwater River have been identified by Corps personnel as reasonable sites to evaluate as potentially comparable to future dam breach conditions on the lower Snake River. The Hanford Reach, which is located below Priest Rapids Dam on the Columbia River in Washington, and the North Fork of the Clearwater, which is located above Dworshak Reservoir in Idaho, are somewhat similar to a near-natural lower Snake River in terms of size, accessibility, and proximity to local users.

For the Hanford Reach, WDFW has estimates of fishing effort for select anadromous species (about 30,000-55,000 trips per year) and traffic count data for some boat launches in this reach, but no comprehensive estimates of use. The USFWS does not have visitation numbers for the Hanford Reach National Monument (Haas 2019), a significant recreation site in the reach. For the 2002 EIS, it was estimated that the Hanford Reach had 50,000 annual recreational fishing visits (Foster Wheeler Environmental and Harris, 2001). Since the Hanford Reach is approximately 50 miles long, this would be equivalent to approximately 1,000 annual fishing visits per mile.

Recreational visitation data are available from the BLM for sites they manage along the Clearwater River, but visitation data are not available for other sites. The partial visitation data totaled about 80,000 visits in 2018. This would be comparable to the 100,000 visits estimated for this area when the 2002 EIS was written (Foster Wheeler Environmental and Harris, 2001). Since the North Fork of the Clearwater is approximately 135 miles long, visitation per mile would be similar to the 1,000 visits per mile for the Hanford Reach.

Estimating Visitation in the Long-Term

As discussed above, the sources available for estimating recreational use levels and activities along the lower Snake River after dam removal under MO3 suggest a wide range of estimates of potential recreational visitation that may occur post dam breach.

Applying the results of the contingent behavior study conducted for the 2002 EIS would yield an estimate that would range from approximately 1.2 to 3.4 million annual visits (adjusted and unadjusted for population) under MO3 in the long-term, depending on whether or not California estimates are included. As described above, the Corps has expressed concerns that the 2002 EIS may have overstated recreation benefits from dam breach.

Because the contingent behavior survey in the 2002 EIS specifically focused on non-fishing visitation in the lower Snake River, it would underestimate that type of recreation. Recreational fishing visitation could be possible in the long-term although there is uncertainty around it being an allowable activity, given the current measures to regulate, protect, and support ESA- listed fish populations and habitat in the region. Applying the current estimates of visitation rates to the Hanford Reach or Clearwater River to the 140-mile lower Snake River without any other adjustments would yield an estimate of approximately 140,000 annual visits, primarily angler visitation, which would be anticipated in the lower Snake River in the long term.

Combining the proxy site estimate of 140,000, which primarily captures fishing visitation, with the visitation estimates from the general recreation survey (contingent behavior survey) from the 2002 EIS, long-term visitation in the lower Snake River could range from 1.3 to 3.5 million following dam breach for all types of recreational activities (water- and land-based activities). In comparison to the current water-based and land based visitation on the lower Snake River under the No Action Alternative of approximately 2.7 million recreational visitor days, the long-term visitation estimates would suggest that visitation to the river reach (both water-based and land-based recreation) could range from 50 percent lower to 30 percent higher than under the No Action Alternative. As described above, visitation to the lower Snake River could be limited by and dependent upon visitors' ability to access the recreational opportunities.

As described in Section 3.5.3.6 of the EIS, MO3 would result in major beneficial effects on upstream migration of Snake River anadromous fish, including steelhead and salmon, in the long term. With increases in salmon and steelhead migration to the Snake River, there is the potential for increased fish abundance that draws additional recreational anglers to Region C and tributaries relative to the No Action Alternative. Salmon and steelhead migration under MO3 would likely support the salmon and steelhead recreational fishery in Region C, supporting continued and increased angler visitation in the long-term.

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Although the specific response of visitors to new river conditions is uncertain, the establishment of near-natural river conditions would result in changes to regional economic effects over time. In particular, new opportunities for land- and water-based river recreation in the lower Snake River (i.e., rafting, kayaking, etc.) and anadromous recreational fishing in Region C would occur. These increases in visitation in the long-term may offset visitation losses in Region C associated with reservoir or flatwater-oriented recreation activities, and recreational opportunities and associated regional economic benefits may even increase in the long term relative to the No Action Alternative. Again, river recreation in the long-term would be dependent on the development of recreational facilities and infrastructure to facilitate access by private and public investments. Tourism businesses, such as retail, rental businesses, and service providers, would likely have to adapt to the new type of visitor who may demand different types of activities, services, gear, and retail merchandise. With increased visitation and visitor spending in the long-term, there is the potential for an increase in jobs and income for outfitters, boating companies, and other tourism businesses relative to the No Action Alternative.

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As noted above in the social welfare analysis, potential long-term increases in anadromous fish populations could increase anadromous recreational fishing activities in Regions B and D, drawing additional visitors. Visitor expenditures associated with these increases in recreational fishing could also accrue, with benefits to tourism business, jobs, and income in the regions.

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Changes in other social effects could be substantial, as communities that are economically dependent on visitation to these five projects could be adversely affected in the short term. Users of these projects could experience diminished physical, mental, and social health benefits associated with the reduced quantity or quality of recreational activities (staying home or diverting recreational use to less-preferred sites), particularly in the short term. River recreation in the lower Snake River and increased abundance of anadromous fish in Regions B, C, and D would bring social benefits to individuals, Tribes, and communities in the long-term. Restoration of riverine conditions and increases in anadromous fish species to the Snake River has been a long-term objective of area tribes, who would experience benefits to their ability to utilize the area recreationally and exercise treaty rights, in addition to other cultural and spiritual benefits.