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Inslee, Murray Release 'Lower Snake River Dams: Benefit Replacment Draft Report' by Bill Crampton Columbia Basin Bulletin, June 9, 2022

Washington state's Gov. Jay Inslee and U.S. Sen. Patty Murray have released the draft "Lower Snake River Dams: Benefit Replacement Draft Report" that examines whether there are reasonable means for replacing the dams' benefits so that breaching could be part of a comprehensive salmon recovery strategy for the Pacific Northwest. The report says 'benefit replacement' could cost as much $30 billion.

Salmon and steelhead have declined by over 90% compared to their pre-dam abundances in the Columbia and Snake River system and the total abundance of salmon and steelhead in the Columbia River is at or near the level it was when the first Endangered Species Act listings were registered in the mid-1990s.

The draft report notes that currently, 42% of Snake River spring/summer Chinook populations have natural origin spawner abundances at or below the Quasi-Extinction Threshold (QET).

For Snake River steelhead, 19% of populations are at or below QET.

"It is expected that more of these populations will be reduced to below QET levels within a few years without significant action to improve survival. The percentage of returning adult salmon is below the level of sustainability. In addition to increased survival, breaching the LSRD is expected to provide a long-term benefit to species that spawn or rear in the mainstem Snake River habitats, such as fall Chinook, with an estimated 140 miles of additional spawning habitat on the Lower Snake River representing a 15-fold increase," says the draft.

The Army Corps of Engineers operates the four run-of-river dams and locks on the lower Snake River in Washington including Ice Harbor, which was constructed between 1955 and 1961, Lower Monumental which was constructed between 1961 and 1969, Little Goose which was constructed between 1963 and 1970, and Lower Granite which was constructed between 1965 and1975.

Together, the four dams produce 1,000 average megawatts of electricity annually and up to 3,033 MW of power at peak capacity, helping to meet peak power loads and contributing to the reliability of the power transmission grid. They also provide more than 100 miles of river navigation and transportation between Lewiston, Idaho, and the Tri-Cities, Washington typically continuing down the Columbia River to lower Columbia ports.

"Replacement of LSRD benefits is possible -- at significant cost and with a major infrastructure program," says the Inslee-Murray report.

"This draft report describes how, based on a review of existing information and outreach to technical experts, tribes, and stakeholders, the services provided by the LSRD could be replaced, or even improved upon, and where they cannot be replaced or improved, mitigation and compensation could be provided. In describing how services and benefits might be replaced, this report assumes that replacement actions would be in place before dam breaching so there is no loss of benefits. In specific instances where actions cannot be implemented in advance, mitigation measures would be needed during a transition period."

The draft report says replacing the services provided by the dams "could range in cost from $10.3 billion to $27.2 billion, and anticipated costs are still not available for several necessary actions."

Today's release of the draft begins a one month comment period that will end July 11.

Murray and Inslee provided the following statement regarding the draft report:

"We continue to approach the question of breaching with open minds and without a predetermined decision. From the start, we have placed public and stakeholder engagement from communities across the Pacific Northwest as the foundation of any regional process. This continues to include consultation and advisement by federally recognized Tribes whose unique perspectives and sovereignty each of us deeply appreciates. We value the diverse perspective of the many stakeholders who have already provided input toward the independent draft report, and we look forward to hearing much more as this document is available for public review.

"Every community in the Pacific Northwest knows the value and importance of our iconic salmon runs--and every community recognizes the importance of salmon to our economy and cultural heritage. We each remain firmly committed to saving our salmon. We also know that the dams provide significant benefits to our region's economy and communities. In the coming weeks, we will carefully review and consider public input, tribal consultation, and other engagement from stakeholders before making any recommendations."

Following the public input period, tribal consultation, and other means of engagement, this report will be updated and released in final form. The senator and governor, considering all the information provided, will then make their recommendations.

The draft report will be available for public review from June 9 through July 11. Comments on the draft report can be provided through a form on the project website, via email, or by mail. All comments must be submitted by 5 p.m., PST, on July 11.

Online comments can be submitted through the project website: https://www.lsrdoptions.org/. Emailed comments can be sent to info@lsrdoptions.org with the email subject line "Draft LSRD Benefit Replacement Study."

Although the draft report describes a potential path forward to successfully replace, or even improve upon services currently provided by the lower Snake River dams, significant work would be needed to bring this outcome about. Congressional authorization would be needed for the Corps to pursue breaching the dams.

"The dams significantly altered the physical, chemical, hydrological, and biological processes in the Snake River, changing it from free flowing to a series of reservoirs. All species of salmon that use the Snake River are currently listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA)," says the report.

"The LSRD are among the largest human-constructed obstacles Snake River fish and other aquatic species encounter on their migration to and from the Pacific Ocean. They significantly limit the ability for salmon to spawn in the main river channel and create slack water conditions that favor other species, many of which prey on salmon. The LSRD were designed with fish ladders to facilitate adult fish passage, and dam operators have added juvenile fish passage facilities and provided improvements to adult passage facilities over time. Despite these efforts, salmon abundance continues to decline. While the LSRD certainly are not the only cause of this decline, their impact on salmon outcomes is significant."

The draft report details services and benefits from the four dams.

• Navigation and transportation: The LSRD enable low-cost shipping of agricultural products, primarily wheat, via barge. Barge rates average 30 cents to 45 cents per bushel of wheat versus other methods, such as rail which ranges from 50 cents to 75 cents per bushel.

  Breaching the LSRD would eliminate all commodity barging between the Tri-Cities and Lewiston-Clarkston causing that transportation to shift to regional rail and trucking networks. Most studies conclude that if barging on the Lower Snake were eliminated rail would become the predominant regional transportation mode, with trucking as the next most predominant mode. Given the estimated changes in rail and truck transportation significant improvements would be required to expand and upgrade shortline rail networks as well as local and state roadways. Compensation for increased transportation costs, infrastructure maintenance and loss of jobs would need to be considered.

• Irrigation: Irrigators use the reservoirs and elevated groundwater levels created by the LSRD to pull water for irrigation. The combined production value of irrigated land along the Snake River in 2021 was estimated to be $327.89 million. The 2020 environmental impact statement for the Columbia/Snake River federal hydrosystem estimates that irrigated agriculture supported by the LSRD contributes $232 million in labor income and $460 million in sales.

  If the LSRD were breached, a variety of replacement actions have been identified to maintain the services provided by the LSRD to irrigated lands and the surrounding agricultural community. These actions include deepening of wells and modifications to pumping infrastructure to accommodate the lower water table and modifying surface water withdrawal infrastructure such as intake structures and pumping capacity.

• Energy: The LSRD are part of the broader integrated system of hydroelectric facilities on the Columbia River and its major tributaries. The energy services currently provided by the LSRD include annual energy production, peaking capacity, clean energy, grid stability, ancillary and grid services, transmission services and lower regional energy rates. The LSRD contribute to the energy provided by the Bonneville Power Administration.

  The three main studies that describe potential LSRD energy replacement portfolios are the 2020 CRSO EIS, the 2018 Northwest Energy Coalition Lower Snake River Dams Replacement Study and the 2022 Lower Snake River Dam Replacement Update (Energy Strategies). These studies found the energy generated by the LSRD could be replaced by a clean energy portfolio that would rely on increased solar and wind generation, energy storage, energy efficiency, and demand response. Replacing the energy production of the LSRD would take time, funding, planning and collaboration across all stakeholders to ensure that the region's future clean energy goals are met, the region maintains a reliable system, and customers, especially the most vulnerable, are not overly burdened by increased electricity rates. The replacement portfolio must be in place and demonstrating that it is producing energy and providing services to the grid before breaching of the dams to avoid significant impacts to the regional energy system and the communities it serves.

• Recreation. The LSRD enable flatwater recreation and cruise industry operation along the Snake River. The LSRD currently support 2.6 million water- and land-based recreational visits annually. The cruise industry had an economic impact of approximately $4 million in 2019 and is projected to increase in the coming years. Significant investment for recreational amenities and compensation for impacted industries would be required if the dams were breached. There would be a need for redevelopment of the waterfront in Lewiston and Clarkston as well as other recreational facilities along the current reservoir areas, and development of new recreational opportunities consistent with a free-flowing river.

"These include tourism impacts from the loss of cruise boats in and out of the Lewis-Clark Valley, commerce at the Lewiston and Clarkston Ports, and industries associated with barge transportation along the lower Snake River. To a certain extent, impacts to some of these industries can be mitigated. It is clear that prior to breaching additional work would be needed to identify broader impacts to the local community and actions that can be taken to maintain and enhance economic vitality in the region."

The draft report notes that salmon "are central to culture and wellbeing in tribal nations throughout the Pacific Northwest, all of which experience adverse impacts from salmon decline. Five tribal nations most impacted by the LSRD are the Nez Perce Tribe, Yakama Indian Nation, Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon and ShoshoneBannock Tribe.

"The dams affect tribal people in two main ways: (1) they reduce the abundance and distribution of salmon and reduce salmon fishing opportunities and harvest available to tribal people and (2) they cut off access to tribal fishing, hunting, and harvesting of roots, plants and berries and prevent tribal people from holding religious and cultural ceremonies at their usual places.

"On a cultural and spiritual scale, the impact of the loss of salmon has been devastating to tribes. The Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians stated that tribes in the Pacific Northwest are "united by salmon; by the Northwest rivers that salmon, steelhead, lamprey, and native fish depend upon; and by the interconnectedness of salmon with their ecosystems -- from the orca in the ocean and Puget Sound to the nutrients salmon supply to the furthest inland streams. . .The fate of our [ATNI] Tribes and Northwest salmon are intertwined."

In addition to congressional action, moving forward with dam breaching also would require establishing timelines and milestones for results, agreement on a comprehensive funding strategy, additional analyses to maximize benefits at all stages of the process, continued technological advancements and implementation of a significant infrastructure program.

Successfully replacing the services provided by the dams "would require a process that engages communities to guide actions, monitor progress and adapt to new information as work moves forward. Governance structures will be needed to support consultation and collaboration amongst federal and state agencies, tribes, public and private utilities, agriculture, and many other interests.

"All of this must be sustained with funding and attention through the years that will be needed to carry out the actions before the dams could be breached."

The draft report notes that scientific models by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Comparative Survival Study (a federal-state-tribal fish model) show that breaching the lower Snake River dams would significantly improve passage for salmon, steelhead, and lamprey. "Breaching could increase tribal harvest by 29% annually and would have the highest likelihood of removing salmon from ESA listing and maintaining treaty and trust obligations compared to other alternatives."

In July 2020 the Army Corps released the Columbia River System Operations Final Environmental Impact Statement (CRSO EIS). The preferred alternative identified in the CRSO EIS is a combination of measures from the various alternatives examined and includes a flex spill for fish agreement but does not include dam breaching.

Following the release of the CRSO EIS, the Nez Perce Tribe, State of Oregon and 11 fishing and conservation groups challenged the decision in U.S. District Court.

Early in 2021, Idaho Congressman Mike Simpson announced the Columbia Basin Initiative. In October 2021, parties agreed to pause litigation until July 2022 to allow time for the parties to develop, work to reach agreement on, and begin implementing a long-term, comprehensive solution to Snake River salmon restoration.

In May 2021, Inslee and Murray announced a joint federal-state process to determine whether there are reasonable means for replacing the services and benefits provided by the LSRD sufficient to support dam breaching as part of a comprehensive salmon recovery strategy for the Snake River and the Pacific Northwest. The Ross Strategic/Kramer Consulting team was retained in November 2021 and began work in January 2022.

For more information go to Lower Snake River Dams Benefit Replacement Report: Draft Report and Comment Period https://www.lsrdoptions.org/#:~:text=In%20October%202021%20Governor%20Jay,salmon%20recovery%20strategy%20for%20the

Reaction:

Army Corps of Engineers

"We appreciate Gov. Inslee and Sen. Murray's leadership on salmon restoration in the Pacific Northwest and look forward to reviewing the report. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers operates numerous projects in the Columbia River Basin and elsewhere. We take our fish and wildlife and ecosystem requirements seriously, as informed by rigorous analysis, and in partnership with other federal agencies and state and Tribal sovereigns. Our successful and ongoing efforts across the Columbia River Basin and Puget Sound demonstrate there are many opportunities for all parties to come together and improve conditions in the Columbia River basin for Endangered Species Act listed species."

The Pacific Northwest Waterways Association

The Pacific Northwest Waterways Association (PNWA) has reviewed the Lower Snake River Dams Benefit Replacement Draft Report commissioned by U.S. Senator Patty Murray and Washington Governor Jay Inslee to help determine whether there are reasonable means for replacing the benefits of these federal projects.

The draft report, which was completed by Kramer Consulting and Ross Strategic, is an oversimplification of the impacts of dam breaching and lacks recognition of the inability and improbability of truly replacing their benefits. It underestimates breaching impacts on our Northwest communities and the needs of millions of people who rely on economic, transportation, energy, and other critical benefits provided by this federal system. It provides no conclusive evidence that spending billions of public dollars to remove four run-of-river dams with world-class fish passage would save salmon without crippling the Northwest's economy and ability to fight climate change.

Over the past few months as the report was completed, PNWA voiced concerns regarding both the process and foundational assumptions, in letters directed to Senator Murray and Governor Inslee, as well as to the consulting firms drafting the report. With the release of the report today, PNWA continues to be concerned about a number of baseline assumptions, including that the value of the dams will decline in future and that all losses from dam breaching can be mitigated or compensated.

"There are significant gaps in the report as it relates to understanding the reality of shifting to alternative transportation modes, permitting and developing the infrastructure that would be required, impacts to Northwest and U.S. farmers, and the true ability to meet our regional and national climate goals without the dams in place," said PNWA Executive Director Heather Stebbings. "The report itself recognizes that more analysis needs to be done to fully assess the economic, social and transportation impacts associated with dam breaching. It raises more questions than it answers and does not provide a solid foundation upon which a decision as substantial as this one could be made."

PNWA recognizes the critical importance of salmon recovery in the Columbia River Basin. As our region looks to improve salmon runs, it is imperative to thoroughly assess all the benefits and drawbacks of the various measures being considered to improve conditions for fish. Dam breaching is problematic, not only because of the serious environmental, social, and economic consequences it would unleash on the region, but also because breaching the Lower Snake River dams is unlikely to increase salmon returns in any meaningful way. Because of the many biological and sociological variables involved, any decision regarding dam breaching should be apolitical, the product of detailed analytic scrutiny, and grounded in science.

The Pacific Northwest Waterways Association is a non-profit, non-partisan trade association of ports, businesses, public agencies and individuals who support navigation, energy, trade, and economic development throughout the region. Learn more at www.pnwa.net

National Wildlife Federation

U.S. Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee's newly unveiled draft report outlining an actionable plan for removing the lower Snake River dams and replacing their services underscores the urgent need to save Northwest salmon from extinction.

The removal of the lower Snake River dams is critical to recovering Columbia River salmon runs, which are on the brink of extinction. The draft report clearly outlines that services the dams provide can be replaced -- and improved -- with infrastructure investments in energy, irrigation and transportation. A 30-day public comment period is now underway ahead of the report's final release by the end of July.

"Snake River salmon are barreling toward extinction, and unless we act, the communities, jobs, and traditions they support will vanish with them," said Collin O'Mara, president and CEO of the National Wildlife Federation. "We urge the Biden Administration to work with Congress to create a future where salmon -- and the Tribes and communities that depend upon them -- thrive by removing the lower Snake River dams. This is paramount if we are to save this natural resource of national importance, honor our nation's commitment to Northwest Tribes, and ensure all communities are made whole."

Since the four lower Snake River dams were completed in 1975, Columbia River salmon and steelhead populations have declined by more than 90 percent. The impacts of these dams, magnified by the effects of climate change, are pushing salmon and steelhead to extinction -- violating the federal government's commitments to Northwest tribes and putting the communities, businesses, ecosystems, and orca that depend on these fish populations even more at risk.

"The lower Snake River Dams -- and the costs to prop them up -- are actively hurting businesses, hurting people and hurting communities in Idaho while benefiting the few. This report proves that we have a choice to change direction -- that we can implement a system that benefits all of us. The report proves we can breach the dams and meet the needs of agriculture, energy production, fish and fish reliant communities. It's unconscionable to see the two paths before us and choose the one that leaves so many of us behind," said Brian Brooks, executive director of the Idaho Wildlife Federation.

Tribes, communities, anglers, commercial fishermen and families across the Northwest region are counting on Murray and Inslee to lead the way and to push Congress to advance durable solutions that will save salmon while strengthening the region as a whole.