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Northwest Has Power Enough, But Barely by Gail Kinsey Hill, Oregonian staff The Oregonian, January 5, 2001

Experts estimate the region will have sufficient electricity,
assuming nothing goes wrong

Concerns that a severe electricity shortage would hit the Northwest this month eased Thursday after a team of energy experts took a hard look at updated data and concluded that power supplies would meet consumer demand -- barely.

Earlier estimates found the region poised to plunge into an energy deficit of 4,000 average megawatts in January, or absent power capable of lighting 4 million homes. A shortage of such scope raised the likelihood that the Northwest, like California, would find itself in a mad scramble to keep the lights on.

"We're still concerned, but there's no cause for alarm at this point," said Don Badley, interim director of the Northwest Power Planning Pool, an organization that coordinates power operations for seven Western states and two Canadian provinces.

Electricity supplies remain tight enough to keep the pressure on politicians, utility executives and power marketers to find ways to conserve power and make sure generators are running trouble-free. Govs. John Kitzhaber of Oregon and Gary Locke of Washington scheduled a news conference for today in the Washington Shore Visitor Center Theater at the Bonneville Dam to call on residents and businesses to conserve energy.

Thursday's updated data came from the Northwest Emergency Response Team, a newly formed organization set up to track the region's growing energy crisis. In addition to the Power Pool, team members include utility executives, state government officials and federal power marketers from Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Montana and Wyoming. British Columbia and Alberta also are part of the group.

The team concluded that the region will need 43,102 average megawatts this month. Generators, many of them hydropowered, are capable of cranking out 44,678 average megawatts.

The findings assume normal weather patterns for the winter, and they keep water flows at levels necessary to protect endangered salmon. A severe shortage could force Bonneville Power Administration, a federal agency and major wholesale power marketer, to compromise fish protections by lowering reservoirs and pouring more water through generators.

The findings take into account recent cutbacks at aluminum smelters. Aluminum operations suck up large quantities of electricity, and idled potlines are freeing up about 1,700 megawatts.

Abnormally cold weather easily could tip the balance into deficit, as could unexpected outages at generating facilities or problems with transmission lines.

"There's not a lot of comfort in this situation," said Dulcy Mahar, a spokeswoman for the response team. "We're on the brink."