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Columbia River Spring Chinook 2025 Forecast About Same as Last Year's Actual Return by Staff Columbia Basin Bulletin, January 10, 2025

Lower for Summer Chinook, Sockeye

Fisheries managers this year are forecasting a spring Chinook salmon run into the upper Columbia River that is slightly higher than last year's run, while predicting a slightly lower number of the Chinook than last year returning to the Snake River.

Also forecasted are a much smaller run of upriver summer Chinook and of sockeye salmon, with just 3,100 sockeye, listed as endangered under the federal Endangered Species Act, returning to the Snake River.

See www.dfw.state.or.us/fish/OSCRP/CRM/docs/2025/2025%20Spring-Summer%20Forecasts.pdf for forecasts.

The 2025 preseason forecast for upriver spring Chinook -- fish heading upstream of Bonneville Dam -- by the U.S. v Oregon Technical Advisory Committee calls for a run of 122,500 fish, about 88 percent of the 10-year average. Some 21,500 of the fish will head upstream in the mainstem Columbia beyond the mouth of the Snake River (with 2,200 natural origin fish) and 56,200 of the fish will turn into the Snake River (with 9,800 natural origin fish). Still, the 2025 forecast of upriver spring Chinook is slightly higher by 5 percent than the actual return in 2024 of 116,332 fish, which was lower than the 2024 preseason forecast of 121,000 upriver fish. To round out the full anticipated return of spring Chinook, others will turn into such rivers upstream of Bonneville as the Klickitat, Deschutes and Little White Salmon rivers.

In addition, the actual return of upriver spring Chinook jacks in 2024 was 16,063, 98 percent of the 10-year average.

Most wild Columbia River spring Chinook are listed under the federal Endangered Species Act, but the proportion of wild fish returning each year varies, especially those fish heading to the Snake River. While natural origin fish over the past 10-years have averaged about 14 percent of the upper Columbia segment of the spring run, this year will be closer to 10 percent of the run. The forecasted return of wild spring Chinook to the Snake River is expected to be about 17 percent of the run. The 10-year average is 20 percent of the run.

The run of spring Chinook in the lower Columbia River downstream of Bonneville is anticipated to be 95,000 fish, which is a higher return than last year's actual return of 73,227 fish and of the 2024 preseason forecast of 84,600 fish.

That breaks down to 51,200 fish into the Willamette. Of those 36,600 will be of hatchery origin. Last year's actual return was 37,737 (28,099 hatchery). The 2024 preseason forecast was 48,800 (39,300 hatchery), with 8,481 adult spring Chinook turning into the Clackamas River, a tributary of the Willamette, joining the river at Willamette Falls.

Some 7,300 spring Chinook will head into the Sandy River (5,358 actual last year) in Oregon and 13,700 into the Cowlitz River (8,983 last year), 3,000 into the Kalama River (2,474 last year) and 3,200 into the Lewis River (2,722 last year), all Washington rivers.

The summer Chinook salmon run will be lower with 38,000 upper Columbia River fish expected to return, a drop from last year's actual run of 42,511 summer Chinook and the 2024 preseason forecast of 52,600. The actual return in 2024 was 81 percent of the forecasted number and 61 percent of the 10-year average. There were 6,908 jacks, 74 percent of the 10-year average. The adult mark rate is 74 percent of the 10-year average. Upriver summer Chinook are not listed under the ESA.

Some 350,200 sockeye salmon are expected to return to the upper Columbia and Snake rivers, a drop from last year's record return of 761,682 sockeye, which was 190 percent of the 2024 preseason forecast of 401,700 fish. Most returning sockeye head upstream into the Wenatchee (94,000), Okanagan (248,000) and Yakima (5,000) rivers, all in Washington. About 100 of the fish will head into the Deschutes River in Oregon and 3,200 will turn into the Snake River (listed under the ESA).

2024 Recreational Harvest

Some 5,705 spring Chinook were kept downstream of Bonneville, a result of considerable angler effort (73,976 angler trips) through June 15, 2024. 1,100 wild spring Chinook were returned, as were 634 steelhead and 224 sockeye, according to an accounting of harvest released by the two-state Columbia River Compact.

Angling upstream of Bonneville and to the Oregon/Washington state line through June 15 netted 1,463 spring Chinook, a result of 5,001 angler trips. Some 217 Chinook were returned, as were 83 sockeye. No steelhead were handled.

Through about 1,000 angler trips, harvest in the lower Snake River was 784 spring Chinook kept.

Summer Chinook catch in the river downstream of Bonneville through July tallied 798 adults, a result of 34,996 angler trips. Some 670 Chinook were returned. 4,143 sockeye were kept and 400 returned. 3,957 steelhead were kept and 2,860 were returned.

Angling upstream of the dam and to the Hwy 395 bridge hooked 42 adult and 24 jack Chinook, 611 sockeye and 21 steelhead, which were released, all the result of 2,161 angler trips.

Areas upstream of Hwy 395 and up to Priest Rapids Dam was heavily fished. Through 12,660 angler trips, 105 adult Chinook and 7,383 sockeye were kept, and 59 steelhead were released.

The Buoy 10 to Wauna power lines fall fishery tallied 101,200 angler trips. Some 18,394 Chinook were kept (11th highest since 1982) and 17,524 were returned. In addition, 34,937 coho salmon were kept and 20,248 were returned.

Fall angling from Wauna to Warrior Rock and from Warrior Rock to Bonneville was the most active, with 117,900 angler trips, the highest since 2016 and eight highest since 1980. Some 31,850 adult Chinook were kept; highest since 2014 and third highest since 1980 with the third 3rd highest effort. Some 4,376 Chinook were returned. 6,135 Coho were kept, which is the highest on record.

From Bonneville to the Hwy 395 bridge, fall angler trips tallied 44,507, resulting in 11,213 Chinook kept (second highest since 2015), 3,572 Chinook returned, 5,186 Coho kept, 787 returned and 13 hatchery steelhead kept and 300 returned.

Fall Chinook angling at Hanford Reach, through 22,200 angler trips, caught 10,197 adults and 938 jack. In addition, 102 Coho were kept.

2024 Commercial Harvest

Spring mainstem harvest was sparse with 42 hatchery Chinook harvested and 17 unmarked fish released.

There was no mainstem fishery during the summer season.

The early fall mainstem commercial fishery netted 28,002 Chinook and 2,045 coho in zones 4 and 5. The late fall fishery in zones 1 to 3 netted 5,101 coho and 1,345 Chinook. 2,559 unmarked coho were released. The late fall mainstem commercial fishery in Zones 4 and 5 netted 17,235 Chinook and 1,742 coho.

The winter/spring Select Area fishery season was above average in catch (164 percent of the 5-yr average.), with 1,306 Chinook caught in the winter and 11,131 Chinook, 9 Sockeye and 1 Coho harvested during the spring. It could be a better season next year with 16,600 Select Area-origin spring Chinook forecasted versus the 15,953 actual return in 2024.

The summer Select Area fishery also had an above average at 161 percent of the 5-year average. Gillnetters caught 4,620 Chinook and 77 Sockeye.

The fall Select Area fishery harvest was also high with 11,561 Chinook, 227 percent of the 5-year average, and 61,241 Coho, 107 percent of the 5-year average.

For background, see:

CBB, December 13, 2023, Early Columbia River 2024 Salmon Forecast Show Spring Chinook Lower than Last Year, Sockeye May see Large Increase