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Preliminary Outlook for 2025 Columbia Fall Chinook Run Issued by Andy Walgamott Northwest Sportsman, January 8, 2025

Outlook pales in comparison to three huge years in the mid-2010s
and estimates of historic runs far, far larger than that.

The preliminary outlook for Columbia fall Chinook in 2025 calls for a return to the mouth similar to and maybe even better than last year's actual run, which came in at 123 percent of forecast.

That's potentially good news for the big river's salmon anglers who in 2024 enjoyed their third highest Chinook harvest and third best catch rate between western Puget Island and Bonneville Dam since 1980 and 11th biggest harvest at Buoy 10 since 1982. Fishing was also good from the Gorge to Tri-Cities.

State salmon managers will issue more fine-tuned forecasts for individual king stocks such as upriver brights and lower river tules later in winter for the annual season-setting process divvying the harvestable surplus between ocean, river and tribal fishermen and ensuring conservation goals are met, but given that last year's official forecast called for 552,000 fall kings, 123 percent of that would put 2024's run in the neighborhood of about 679,000 fish to the mouth of the Columbia. Just over 490,000 were counted at Bonneville.

The initial outlook for this year is based in part on higher-than-expected jack returns for multiple Columbia stocks in 2024.

"Fall Chinook returns in 2025 should be similar to or higher than 2024 returns," managers state.

They said that all of the big river's fall king stocks save Bonneville Pool hatchery, or BPH, fish came in higher in 2024 than they did in 2023.

While 2025 looks like it might have the potential to be a relatively decent fall Chinook year on the Columbia, the outlook still pales in comparison to three huge years in the mid-2010s when more than a million fish came back annually, and estimates of historic runs far, far larger than that.